Visualization of the Week: Forecasting the US presidential election

The New York Times visualizes data from polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight to forecast the winner of the US presidential election.

The US presidential election is just weeks away, and there is no shortage of polls and collected indicators — in the US and around the world — being used to predict the outcome. Polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight has made a science of forecasting the US presidential election results, and the New York Times has visualized its election 2012 forecast data, including historical context, to show how state allegiances to the Democratic and Republican parties have shifted.

The interactive visualization shows each candidate’s forecasted position based on either the size of the lead or the number of predicted electoral votes, along with the historical shifts through past elections. Data points running down the left side can be highlighted in the visualization as well. In the screenshot below, the visualization shows the forecasted electoral votes, with the added highlight of the historical and predicted allegiance of Ohio, the state that has voted for the winner in every election since 1964.

New York Times US presidential election visualization
Click to view the full visualization.

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